Lottery Percentages and Playoff Scenarios

Lottery Watch (is over):

It's official, the Bruins will have a top 3 choice after Toronto's loss to the Rangers last night. Here are the Bruins' odds of acquiring each pick in Tuesday's (April 13) Draft Lottery:

1st - 18.8%
2nd - 42.0%
3rd - 39.2%
4th or worse - Blutarski's GPA

Unfortunately, that % chance for #3 is pretty high and the Bruins seem to be cursed this year, but you can't complain about picking in the top 3.

Playoff Watch:

6. Montreal - 87 (39 wins, 2 games remaining)
7. Philly - 86 (40 wins, 2 games remaining)
8. Boston - 85 (36 wins, 3 games remaining)
9. Rangers - 84 (37 wins, 2 games remaining)

Here are all of the possible points scenarios in the final two games for the Rangers and Flyers (ignoring what happens with the Habs for the sake of argument):

Rangers 4, Flyers 2 (Rangers win both in OT/Shootout)
Bruins need 4 points to make playoffs, and to guarantee finishing above 8th

Rangers 4, Flyers 1 (one OT game)
Bruins need 3 points to make playoffs, 4 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 4, Flyers 0
Bruins need 2 points for 8th, 4 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 3, Flyers 3 (One OT/Shootout win each)
Bruins need 3 points to make playoffs, 5 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 3, Flyers 2 (Rangers win in regulation, Flyers win in OT)
Bruins need 3 points to make playoffs, 4 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 2, Flyers 4 (figure it out for yourself the rest of the way)
Bruins need 2 to make it, 6 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 2, Flyers 3
Bruins need 2 to make it, 5 to guarantee 7th+

Rangers 2, Flyers 2
Bruins need 2, 4 for 7th+

Rangers 1, Flyers 4
Bruins need 1, 6 for 7th+

Rangers 0, Flyers 4
Bruins are in, 6 for 7th+

Just remember that 3 points by the Bruins could be enough to pass the Habs if they lose each of their final two games in regulation. Les Habitantes need only a single point to clinch their playoff spot since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rangers. The Habs play tonight @ Carolina and finish up with Toronto on Saturday. Ten different point possibilities come from just two games - have I mentioned the 3-point game system is stupid in the NHL?

The key here is, the Bruins need just 3 points at the most in all but one scenario (Rangers with two OT/Shootout wins). Even a team that is missing half of its D corps should be able to pry 3 points out of these final 3 games and they will only need 2 points to clinch if the dreaded three-point game does not occur in either Ranger/Flyer game.

That sets it up for you - the B's just need to go out and take care of their own business tonight (by the way, they cannot clinch with a win tonight as reported in the Globe).